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This topic has appeared in the trending rankings 1 time(s) in the past year. While it does not trend frequently, its appearance suggests a renewed or concentrated surge of public interest.
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The 2015 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3, or UCERF3, is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) for the state of California, superseding UCERF2. It provides authoritative estimates of the likelihood and severity of potentially damaging earthquake ruptures in the long- and near-term. Combining this with ground motion models produces estimates of the severity of ground shaking that can be expected during a given period, and of the threat to the built environment. This information is used to inform engineering design and building codes, planning for disaster, and evaluating whether earthquake insurance premiums are sufficient for the prospective losses. A variety of hazard metrics can be calculated with UCERF3; a typical metric is the likelihood of a magnitude M 6.7 earthquake in the 30 years since 2014.
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Search interest data over the past 12 months indicates that this topic periodically attracts global attention. Sudden spikes often correlate with major news events, public statements, or geopolitical developments.